"Every 19 minutes, one less social housing unit" (Zeit Online, 2022, own translation), "Fewer social housing units for more people – crowding out competition in the housing market" (taz, 2024, own translation) or "Social housing is becoming increasingly important – and increasingly scarce" (WDR, 2024, own translation). The following examples of newspaper and news article headlines not only highlight the current importance of social housing in the housing market, but also the ongoing decline in the number of such units.
(Scientific) data on social housing primarily covers the proportion of social housing stock in Hamburg as a whole and its individual districts in recent years, as well as approvals, completions, and the proportion of housing units whose rent control is expiring. Current newspaper and news articles (see above), data from the city of Hamburg (e.g., Wohnungsbaubericht) or Statistik Nord make it particularly clear that the proportion of social housing in Hamburg has fallen in recent years and will continue to decline as the rent controls expire.
The proportion of (scientific) data on housing units on the free housing market in Hamburg is comparatively higher. Not only is there data available on the amount of the total housing stock in residential and non-residential buildings throughout Hamburg and its individual districts in recent years, as well as on their approvals and completions. There is also detailed data on the land, real estate, and property markets, as well as on individual rental prices in the various districts of Hamburg and their developments over the past years.
This data on housing units on the free housing market includes information from the city (e.g., Immobilienmarktbericht , Wohnungsbaubericht ), BNP Paribas Real Estate (e.g., City Report) , Statistik Nord , or housing companies such as Engel & Völkers , etc.
The connection between the rental prices of social housing and housing units on the free housing market (rent price gap) has not been established at this time. For this reason, the research question was also not addressed.
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After extensive data research and collection (data harvesting) on the central topics of “social housing” and “housing on the free housing market”, this data was then filtered and sorted according to importance (data filtering and sorting).
With regard to the applied methodology, it should be noted that the specific choice of topics and the combination of two different subject areas (rent prices of social housing and rent prices of housing units on the free housing market) made it difficult to apply a diverse range of methodological instruments, such as “tracking,” “tracing,” “photographing,” or “test walks.”
On the basis of the compiled data, important technical and spatial data, such as the social housing stock, expiring rent controls, and rental prices on the free housing market from various platforms like Statistik Nord, the City of Hamburg or the real estate company Engel & Völkers, were graphically represented (data transforming) as the basis for the research topic. Datawrapper was used as the central tool for visualizing this data.
On the other hand, “mapping” was used as the central methodological instrument for answering the problem statements. Various data sets were compared and calculated (difference calculation for the representation of rent differences in the districts of Hamburg), before the data and results were then graphically illustrated as a choropleth map using Kepler.
The color scheme for the choropleth map was selected to be colorblind-friendly and to follow the general visual convention that darker shades represent higher values. This design choice supports an intuitive understanding of spatial patterns on each map.
Social housing falls into the category of affordable housing. However, a look at the ratio of total housing units to publicly subsidized housing (social housing) in Hamburg makes it clear that social housing makes up only a small portion of the total housing stock.
In addition, the total number of housing units in residential and non-residential buildings has continued to rise in recent years, while the proportion of social housing has continued to decline overall.
A closer look at Hamburg's districts reveals that the district of Hamburg-Mitte with 21,795 (2023) currently has the highest number of social housing units, while Eimsbüttel with 6,068 (2023) has the lowest number in the city.
This decline in social housing is also illustrated by a look at the ratio between social housing units and social housing units with expiring rent controls in five years.
A closer look at Hamburg's districts shows that, as with the social housing stock in Hamburg, the district of Hamburg-Mitte with 6,067 (2024) currently has the largest number of social housing with expiring rent controls in five years, while the district of Eimsbüttel with 1,163 (2024) has the lowest number in the city.
This means that both the proportion of social housing and the proportion of affordable housing units in the city of Hamburg are steadily decreasing. It can also be assumed that the proportion of lower-income households that will have to look for affordable housing on the free housing market in the future will continue to rise.
Further research revealed that, depending on the data source, Hamburg ranked among the top federal states in terms of the ratio between income and rent prices just a few years ago. This ratio has changed in recent years as other cities have become more expensive at a faster rate. The ratio between average income and rent burden in Munich and Berlin is particularly interesting, as it shows that high percentage rent burdens occur equally in both high-income and low-income regions. However, the data also reveal considerable uncertainties: the study cited also includes the surrounding area of the city, and local household burdens vary greatly. In Hamburg, for example, the areas in the Mitte and Nord districts north of the Elbe River exceed the defined maximum burden ratio of 37.5% (unable to show in the graphic because of a lack of more detailed information).
One of the challenges facing the city of Hamburg is that living in Hamburg, as in all big cities, is expensive. This challenge particularly affects two groups: citizens whose income is too high to qualify for a housing subsidy but is still relatively low, and people who are entitled to social housing but cannot find any.
The real estate group Engel & Völkers reports average asking prices for residential rents of over €12 per square metre (excluding utilities) for many districts in 2025. The average asking rent for one square metre of living space in Hamburg is €16.95.
The city of Hamburg is trying to counteract this trend by offering various subsidies in the form of credits, called “Erster Förderweg”, “Zweiter Förderweg” and “Dritter Förderweg”. With the subsidies, the private landlord makes a commitment to the city to only let the rental apartments for at least 30 years to people who meet the requirements for occupying a subsidized apartment and have received a housing entitlement certificate for this purpose. The various funding channels offer different financing options for private developers' projects.
The map illustrates the gap between social housing rent and free market rent. Each district was assigned an average location-based rental price for apartments on the free market. This price was then compared to the rent limit defined by the third Hamburg subsidy scheme, which represents the maximum possible rent for social housing, at €12.25 per square meter. The difference between market rent and this limit is particularly high in the western districts, as well as in peripheral northern and central areas. The gap is especially significant in newly developed areas such as Hafencity and Kleiner Grasbrook. Meanwhile, some districts such as Heimfeld, Billstedt, Marmstorf, Hausbruch, Moorfleet, Billbrook, and Moorburg have lower average rental prices than the social housing threshold.
The rent levels in districts like Moorburg, Moorfleet, and Billbrook can be explained by their low apartment density on the left map. These areas are primarily dominated by industrial zones, with Moorburg and Billbrook having the lowest apartment densities in Hamburg. Districts such as Billstedt and Heimfeld have a moderate apartment density, yet still show rental prices below the social housing threshold. In these cases, the social monitoring data from 2024 may help explain the pricing trends.
The right map shows that Billstedt, in particular, has a high concentration of areas with a very low social index. Heimfeld and Hausbruch display a mixed social index. However, further analysis reveals that the areas with a high social index in these districts are primarily residential zones with single-family houses. The social index may be a significant factor influencing how rental prices are determined.
As in other major German cities, the burden of rent on households in Hamburg is considerable. Local disparities in particular pose a challenge for policymakers and authorities, who must ensure that extremely high or low housing prices do not lead to social segregation within specific areas. Although Hamburg is addressing this issue through its “Förderwege” subsidy programs, the financial pressure on many households continues to grow.
In fact, especially in central and socially advantaged areas of Hamburg, the gap between free-market rental prices and the reasonable, professionally-defined prices of social housing is too large. Newspapers and other media have been highlighting the high cost of living and renting for years. However, the growing disparity between free-market rents and social housing prices remains an underexposed issue.
In practice, apartments with rents below €15 per square meter are rarely found on private real estate portals, even in the more affordable districts. Average rents often appear higher in statistics than in reality because many of the more affordable apartments are not offered through public platforms, but instead exchanged via informal or personal networks.
Due to the limited depth and precision of the data used here, the analysis offers more of an overview of where housing is especially expensive and where relatively affordable living is still possible. Nevertheless, some key insights emerge: the substantial rent differences suggest that social segregation between central and peripheral districts is likely to increase. In central areas, it can be assumed that some households are spending nearly half (or even more) of their income on rent, a situation that is unsustainable in the long term.
While increasing housing density in central districts is not endlessly feasible, it is equally clear that rising rents, if left unchecked, will primarily reinforce social segregation.
Unfortunately, the available data is insufficient for a more comprehensive analysis. To gain a deeper understanding of Hamburg’s housing situation, the next steps in our research should focus on collecting more detailed and reliable datasets, ideally from sources beyond private real estate companies like Engel & Völkers. This would allow us to better track rent developments across districts and compare them to changes in income levels.
In particular, the following data would be crucial for a clearer analysis:
With more and higher-quality data, it would be possible to conduct detailed analyses at the district level. This would help identify more precisely where the demand for social housing and affordable housing (outside the formal subsidy system) is greatest. Based on that, public funding and development efforts could be more accurately targeted and effectively allocated.
It’s also important to understand the long-term impact of housing subsidies. When a private landlord accepts subsidies, they enter a binding agreement with the city to rent their apartments exclusively to individuals who meet the requirements for social housing and possess a valid “Wohnberechtigungsschein”, usually for a minimum period of 30 years.